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The Evolution of Imagining the Internet

The research initiative was inspired by a suggestion fromÌýLee Rainie, director of theÌý, during a visit to Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ inÌý2000. He spoke then with faculty membersÌýJanna Quitney AndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýConstance Ledoux BookÌýabout gathering a collection of early Internet predictions – this idea was inspired byÌýIthiel de Sola Pool’sÌýÌýThanks to administrative and monetary support primarily provided by Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ, Imagining the Internet has grown annually to include much more, including:Ìýthe world’s foremost series of reports on the likely future of digital life – thousands of experts’ opinions in documented in thousands of pages of content over a 20-year span; journalistic print and video documentation of many major technology innovation and policy events between 2005 and 2020; and the foremost for the impact of the digital communications revolution on future of humanity at the turn of the millennium. Following is a calendar breakdown of Imagining the Internet’s development.


2000-2001

Ashley Woods Neighborhood PhotoSurvey planning and recruiting was undertaken in November 2000 for the Pew- and Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ-funded projectÌýÌýThe daily Internet use of 24 families in a small-town neighborhood in Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ, NC, was documented by a team of 25 undergraduate student researchers led byÌýJanna AndersonÌýover the span of one week in January 2001. Key undergraduate student research assistants wereÌýErica Stanley, Betsy SnavelyÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýCrystal Allen. The work was also documented in a full page of news stories in July 2001 inÌý


2001-2002

Book Teaching Students PhotoÂé¶¹ÊÓÆµ faculty memberÌýConnie Book, who later went on to be named Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ president,Ìýundertook a preliminary research report, based on the work of and funded by the Pew Internet Project, seeking “future of the Internet” predictions made between 1993 and 1995 in the Lexis-Nexis database, assisted by Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ undergraduatesÌýTiffany Avery, Shannon Bonnezi, Allison Dieboldt, Eric Kastendike, Kristen Kerr, Jessica Rivelli, Brian Sentman, Betsy Snavely, Erica Stanley, Elizabeth Sudduth, Maggie SullivanÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýKate Wodyka. The ensuing 2002 research paper was an analysis of several hundred predictive statements that established the following prediction themes:ÌýThe Internet will transform society; it will transform economies; content will drive the Internet’s success; the Internet presents security and privacy concerns; the Internet’s growth is dependent on an efficient and reliable infrastructure; the Internet will spawn a new generation of hardware and software; it will create a smaller world; it will transform America’s schools; it will impact professions.The interesting results found in this work made it evident that the predictions research should be expanded upon.


2003

Anderson Teaching at Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Photo In 2003, Imagining the Internet got its formal start when Pew Research provided more than $30,000 to fundÌý´¡²Ô»å±ð°ù²õ´Ç²Ô’s deeper investigation into early 1990s predictions about the likely future of the internet. Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Media History professor Harlan Makemson assigned 65 students to each spend several hours assisting Anderson in unearthing and logging predictions as a class assignment. Later, Anderson worked six months to check and clean the data. The research resulted in theÌýEarly 1990s Predictions Database: more than 4,200 predictions about the future of the internet made in public media between 1990 and 1995 by 1,000 different voices of the time, from well-connected stakeholders to common netizens. (None of the predictions logged in Book’s initial study were slotted into this online database; the newer study was modeled to implement a more detailed method of searching, identifying, mining and sorting the data.) To see a who participated go to the end of this page.


2004

Future of the Internet Survey Cover ImageUpon the completion of theÌý, further development of the Imagining the Internet site continued underÌýJanna Anderson’s direction.ÌýLee RainieÌýof Pew Research was inspired by a suggestion from futuristÌýBruce SterlingÌýto fund the first of what became a series of Web-basedÌýÌýin which experts shared their views on the potential future of the Internet. In 2004 and biennially, annually or biannually over the 20 years to follow, experts quoted in the early 1990s database and thousands of additional technology stakeholders and skeptics have been sent an email invitation to participate in Imagining the Internet’s surveys. The results are published in theÌýÌýsection on this site and those published the first 20 years are also available on theÌýÌýsite. See the first “Future of the Internet” In addition, Anderson added aÌýÌýsection of the site that invited the public to share their predictions any time. It was posted online in the fall of 2004. It caught the public’s attention after it was publicized by blogger Christine Boese on CNN’s website. It was left open the next few years, amassing a small but unique set of predictions from around the globe at the dawn of the Internet’s broader global adoption and first major growth spurt.


2005-2006

IGF Interview Photo from 2006Janna Anderson’sÌýhistory book based on the initial collection of “Early ’90s” predictions,ÌýÌýwas published by Rowman & Littlefield and named a top title for academic libraries. The Imagining the Internet site was redesigned to add extra layers of information, expanding beyond the initial projects. In 2005-06, Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ began funding Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ student-faculty teams’ attendance at global Internet events to capture video interviews and documentary multimedia journalism for the Imagining the Internet Center. Anderson, studentÌýScott MyrickÌýand Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ staff memberÌýBryan BakerÌýrecorded interviews with participants at theÌý conference in Palo Alto, CA, in 2005. Anderson also led interview expeditions to theÌý(at SRI in Menlo Park, CA, joined byÌýDan Anderson) and to the first-ever UN-facilitatedÌýÌýin Athens in 2006 (with studentÌýErin BarnettÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýBaker). At the suggestion of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ communications students, additional sections were added to the website in 2006 to: educate children under age 12 –Ìý help teachers of elementary, middle and high school students use the site ; and provide perspective in narrative form about predictions past and future –ÌýForward 150/Back 150. Those sections of the site remain frozen in time; they reflect the culture and hopeful predictions of the people of 2006.


2006-2007

Cerf Interview IGF Photo 2006Janna AndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýLee RainieÌýpublished the results of theirÌý survey. Daily video and written coverage of the second UNÌýÌýin Rio de Janeiro, was captured by an Anderson-led documentary team of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ faculty, staff and students that includedÌýConnie Book, Dan Anderson, J McMerty, Eryn Gradwell, Dannika Lewis, Michele HammerbacherÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýAnne Nicholson.ÌýBook and Anderson conducted an onsite survey of delegates to IGF 2007, “Realizing the Global Promise of the Internet: The Future of Internet Governance,” the first research to tap into contemporary sentiments in regard to Internet issues live and on the scene of a governance event. Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ undergraduate studentÌýErin BarnettÌýedited together a compilation of interviews from IGF-Athens to complete the documentary filmÌýÌýThe film was selected for presentation at events at IGF-Rio, the Broadcast Education Association and the National Conferences on Undergraduate Research (NCUR). From 2007 through 2020, Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ undergrads presented Imagining the Internet’s Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ-funded research at NCUR annually.


2007-2008

OECD Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Researchers PhotoIn 2007, Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ formally established the nonprofit Imagining the Internet Center, based in its School of Communications, with Janna Anderson as director. An Imagining the Internet team includingÌýGlenn ScottÌýand undergraduate studentsÌýAshley Barnas andÌýCraig CampbellÌýedited and posted four hours of video interviews with 31 global leaders recorded at theÌý conference in Seoul, Korea in 2008. A book-length version of Anderson and Rainies’ first predictions survey was published by Cambria Press,ÌýÌýIn addition, the results of the Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ-Pew 2007 IGF-Rio Internet Policy surveyÌýÌýwere published in a report by Book and Anderson. The results of theÌýÌýconducted by Anderson and Rainie were published in December 2008. More than 100 video clips featuring the Web coverage of the third UN-facilitatedÌý-2008Ìýin Hyderabad, India, were posted by Anderson, along with PDFs of the IGF 2008 transcripts.


2009-2010

Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ 2009 Imagining the Internet Group PhotoCambria’s book-length version of Anderson and Rainies’ second expert-predictions survey,ÌýÌýwas released in January 2009, and the book version of their third survey,ÌýÌýwas published by Cambria in July. Janna Anderson joined the steering committee of IGF-USA and began sending teams to document its annual gatherings in Washington, D.C.ÌýColin DonohueÌýand Anderson lead a group of students and faculty participating in the planning of theÌý2009 and 2010 Internet Governance Forum-USAÌýconferences and carrying out full documentary coverage, with written and video accounts added to this site. Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ studentsÌýRandy Gyllenhaal, Alex Trice, Kirsten BennettÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýMorgan LittleÌýparticipated in panels at the events. A second Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ documentary team collected hundreds of video clips while completing aÌý IGF Egypt 2009 Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group Photosurvey and providing written journalistic coverage of the fourthÌý-2009 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, in November of 2009; Anderson participated in the panel on “Transnationalization of the Internet,” studentÌýEugene DanielÌýparticipated in the “Youth Panel” and the documentary team also includedÌýDan AndersonÌýand Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ students Drew Smith, Andy DiemerÌýandÌýShelley Russell. In a massive student-faculty project in April 2010, Imagining the Internet planned and carried outÌý, a multi-day, multi-event conference held in conjunction with theÌýGlobal WWW2010Ìýconference in Raleigh, NC, USA, April 28-30; that team added documentation of FutureWeb events to this site; among the speakers wereÌýVint Cerf, Tim Berners-Lee, danah boyd, Danny Weitzner, Carl MalamudÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýDoc Searls. Future Web 2009 Group Photo(To see a full list of student participants, The results of theÌýfourthÌý“Future of the Internet”ÌýsurveyÌýconducted by Anderson and Rainie were revealed in six reports between February and July 2010, including presentations at the annual meeting of theÌýAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceÌýand at theÌýWorld Futures Conference. A documentary journalism team led byÌýGlenn ScottÌýand including student reportersÌýBennett, SmithÌýandÌýSamantha BaranowskiÌýconducted dozens of interviews and participated in panels at theÌý-2010Ìýin Vilnius, Lithuania. Anderson posted roughly 400 video clips and photos from the events of IGF-2010, including a video survey of delegates.


2011-2012

Hall of Fame Stage PhotoThe Imagining the Internet Center was named aÌýfor its use of information technology to promote positive social, economic and educational change. In 2011 Anderson produced a 10-minute expert talk on the future of the Internet that was viewed at theÌýDanish Top Executives SummitÌýin Copenhagen; co-led a session on the future of the Internet at theÌýSouth By Southwest InteractiveÌýconference in Austin, Texas, withÌýPaul JonesÌýof UNC-Chapel Hill; delivered a keynote atÌýWebcom 10Ìýin Montreal; and was a keynote speaker atÌýMobilityShifts, a conference on the future of learning hosted by The New School in New York City. Cambria’s book-length version of Anderson and Rainies‘ fourth expert-predictions survey,ÌýÌýwas published in early 2011. A team of 26 people from Imagining the Internet recorded the events of theÌýInternet Governance Forum-USA 2011, and a team of 23 people recorded all of the details of 16Ìý2012 IGF-USAÌýevents. Both IGF-USA conferences took place in Washington, D.C. In the fall of 2011, a documentary video team includingÌýBaranowski, Nicole Chadwick, Kellye Coleman, Taylor FosheeÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýLee Hopcraft, led byÌýRich Landesberg, conducted a video survey at theÌý-2011Ìýin Nairobi, Kenya. More than 400 video clips were assembled from the survey conducted in Kenya by this team. Eight significant Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ/Pew Internet reports stemming from theÌýÌýconducted by Anderson and Rainie were published in 2012 by the Pew Research Center and the Imagining the Internet Center.ÌýThe Internet SocietyÌýprovided generous funding support for Anderson to train and lead a team of 10 in conducting multimedia documentary coverage of the Ìýconference in Geneva, Switzerland, April 22-24, ISOC’s 20th Anniversary Conference, which also featured theÌýÌý– Rachel Southmayd, Addie Haney, Rebecca Smith, Caitlin O’Donnell, Brandon Marshall, Jacquie Adams, Jeff Flitter, Nicole Chadwick, Brian Meyer and Dan Anderson. Also in 2012: Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ alumÌýAaron Moger createdÌýÌýand its work.


2013-2014

Battle for Control Book CoverTheÌýÌýby Anderson and Rainie was published in eight separate reports in 2014 (one report was not made public). The seven public reports – on the future ofÌý,Ìý,Ìý,Ìý,ÌýÌýand expectations forÌý– generated global discussions and influenced policy concerns. The book version of the fifth “Future of the Internet” survey,Ìýwas published by Cambria Press.ÌýSince the projects of Imagining the Internet began in 2000, the center has had five website redesigns, the fourth redesign – unveiled in 2013 – was a group effort led byÌýRebecca Bass, Janna AndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýDan Anderson.
WTPF Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group PhotoA documentary video team from Imagining the Internet includingÌýJulie Morse, Joe Bruno, Brian MezerskiÌýandÌýRyan Greene, led by Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ facultyÌýBrian Walsh,Ìýconducted survey interviews of the delegates to theÌý. Both events were facilitated by the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, in May 2013.

ISOC Hall of Fame 2013 Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group PhotoA team includingÌýShakori Fletcher, Katie Blunt, Jeff Ackermann, Alex RoseÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýRyan Greene, led byÌýNaeemah ClarkÌýand video producerÌýAaron MogerÌýconducted long-form video interviews with the world’s top Internet leaders at theÌýÌýand theÌýÌýin Berlin, Germany.ÌýJanna AndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýLee RainieÌýspoke in many venues around the world, including presentations at theÌýInternet Privacy SummitÌýin Palo Alto and theÌýAmerican Library Association’s annual conference, to discuss the results of and content included in reports based on thousands of responses to theÌýÌýAn undergraduate student team includingÌýMia Watkins, Sky Cowans, Brian Mezerski, Addie Haney andÌýJason Puckett, led byÌýAnthony HatcherÌýand Moger conducted interviews with Internet leaders at theÌýÌýin Hong Kong.

Internet Hall of Fame Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group Photo


2015-2016

IETF Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group PhotoJanna AndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýLee RainieÌýpresented research results from the Future of the Internet surveys at major national and international conferences, includingÌýRoboUniverseÌýin April 2015 at the Javits Center in New York and theÌýWorld Future ConferenceÌýin July 2015 in San Francisco.Ìý A documentary video team from Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ’s Imagining the Internet Center, led by Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ staff membersÌýAaron MogerÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýColin DonohueÌýand including student research assistantsÌýRajat Agarwal, Michelle Alfini, Gary Grumbach, Rhett Lawson, Ashley McGetrickÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýPaige PaurosoÌýrecorded and produced hundreds of video answers to a major ethnographic survey of attendees at theÌý meeting in Dallas, Texas, March 2015.ÌýAndersonÌýpresented research results in lectures across the country, including a presentation at theÌýUS Naval War CollegeÌýon the potential impacts ofÌý In November 2015, an eight-member team from Imagining the Internet did ethnographic documentary work at theÌý inÌýJoão Pessoa, Brazil.Ìý Imagining the Internet Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group PhotoThe group interviewed nearly 100 of the 1,200 IGF participants, asking five research questions about the future of the Internet that were collected in five playlists that contain nearly 500 video clips. The Global IGF 2105 research was conducted by Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ undergraduates Pauroso,ÌýMichael Bodley,ÌýGrumbach,ÌýJackie Pascale,ÌýLeena DahalÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýJacob LaPlanteÌýof Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ’s School of Communications, under the supervision of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ faculty/staffÌýMoger,ÌýKenn GaitherÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýAnderson. On July 14, 2016, a 21-person team from Imagining the Internet led byÌýDonohue,ÌýBakerÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýAndersonÌýcompletedÌý. ÌýStudent Researchers Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Imagining the Internet Group PhotoAmong the 14 events of IGF-USA 2016 were panel sessions on privacy/security/encryption, the struggle over promoting free speech while trying to find ways to counter violent extremism online, the Global Connect project to provide Internet access to the next 1.5 billion people, and a special event on the efforts to complete the full transition of oversight of IANA to ICANN. On Sept. 30, 2016,Ìý the medallion honors highly distinguished humanist innovators, change agents and thought leaders who have dedicated their lives to initiating and sustaining significant contributions that have positively impacted the global future.Ìý TheÌýtook place Dec. 5-9 in Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, IGF 2016 Full Team Group Photowhere undergraduate researchersÌýElizabeth Bilka,ÌýAshley Bohle,ÌýMelissa Douglas,ÌýMaya Eaglin,ÌýAlex Hager,ÌýCaroline Hartshorn,ÌýPaul LeBlanc,ÌýKailey TracyandÌýAnna ZwingelbergÌýworked under the supervision of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ faculty/staffÌýMoger,ÌýVanessa BravoÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýAndersonÌýwith some assistance fromÌýDiego Pineda Davilla.ÌýThe team recorded more than 100 interviews with IGF participants from 50 nation-states, asking six questions tied to the future of the Internet and posting nearly 700 video clips.


2017-2018

Algorithm Age Logo In 2017 Imagining the Internet produced six major reports in the “Future of the Internet” series it sponsors with Pew Research. These reports, co-authored byÌýJanna Anderson andÌýLee Rainie were based on a set of survey questions answered by more than 1,800 expert respondents in mid-2016:Ìý published Feb. 8, 2017;Ìýpublished March 29;Ìý“published May 3;published June 6; andÌýÌýpublished August 10, and published Oct. 9.

In July 2017, a team of 19 students (pictured below) was organized and led byÌýColin Donohue,ÌýBryan Baker,ÌýJannaÌýAndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýTommy KopetskieÌýin multimedia documentary coverage of 13 events atÌýin Washington DC.

IGF Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ 2017 Group Photo

25th ISOC Anniversary Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group PhotoIn September, a documentary journalism team that includedÌýDiego Pineda Davila,ÌýMelissa Douglas,ÌýMaya Eaglin,ÌýAlex Hager,ÌýMeg Malone,ÌýAlexandra Roat,ÌýJared MayersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýErik Webb conducted interviews with incoming Hall of Fame inductees and young innovators at theÌýÌýconference at the University of California-Los AngelesÌý under the direction of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ facultyÌýJanna AndersonÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýDavid Bockino.

In December, undergraduate researchersÌýCammie Behnke,ÌýMelissa Douglas,ÌýMaya Eaglin,ÌýMeagan Gitleman,ÌýAlex Hager,ÌýJared Mayerson,ÌýEmmanuel Morgan,ÌýJackie PascaleÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýAlexandra RoatÌýworked under the supervision Bockino and Anderson to conduct a video survey of participants in theÌýÌýat United Nations headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, producing nearly 900 responses to five important questions.

IGF 2017 Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Group Photo

In April and July 2018, Imagining the Internet and Pew’s Internet & Technology project published, in two parts, a massive 272-page report authored by Anderson and Rainie,ÌýÌýIn it, aÌýplurality of experts said digital life will continue to expandÌýpeople’s boundaries and opportunities, whileÌýnearly a third said that although networked humans gain vast advantages there are also downsides, and they expect digital lifeÌýwill be mostly harmful to people’s health, mental fitness andÌýhappiness in the next decade. In May 2018,ÌýÌýwas honored as the second recipient of the, awardedÌýto highly distinguished humanist innovators, change agents and thought leaders who have dedicated their lives to initiating and sustaining significant contributions that have positively impacted the global future.

Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ Interviewing IGF 2017 PhotoImagining the Internet sent a 10-person team prepared by Anderson and led by Bockino and Luchsinger to theÌýÌýto record interviews at UNESCO headquarters with more than 150 Internet leaders from 55 nation-states in November 2018. The student-faculty team asked about the best new tech tools likely to emerge in the near future, about how to better inspire global cooperation in the digital age and about how best to tackle the toughest communications challenges of today.

In December, Imagining the Internet and Pew Research released an important report onÌýasking, “Will AI help most people be better off in 2030 than they are in 2018?” Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ 63% of the expert respondents to this survey predicted that most people will be better off most of the time in 2030 and 37% said most people will not be better off most of the time, however, 92% of respondents expressed some concerns over the future for humans in one or more of these categories: human agency, jobs, data abuse, surveillance, the erosion of democracy, weaponization of information and the erosion of many highly valued cognitive and social capabilities. The report, by Anderson, Rainie and Luchsinger was released at theÌýÌýconference in San Jose, CA, an event also featuring talks by Web innovator Sir Tim Berners-Lee, Google VP and Internet pioneer Vint Cerf and Web pioneer Dame Wendy Hall.


2019-2020

Janna Anderson and Lee Rainie briefed industry, government and research leaders on “The Future of Trust” at the National Academies of Sciences at a February Research Roundtable.

In July 2019, a team of 20 students was led byÌýColin DonohueÌý²¹²Ô»åÌýBryan BakerÌýwith assistance fromÌýAndersonÌýand Luchsinger in near-real-time multimedia documentary coverage of 10 events atÌýIGF-USA 2019 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.

A five-person team from Imagining the Internet led by AlexÌýLuchsinger recorded individual interviews and the induction speeches of 2019 inductees into the Internet Hall of FameÌýSept. 27, 2019, in San Juan, Costa Rica.

In celebration of the 50th anniversary of the first host-to-host networked computing connection of the early days of ARPANET, Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ and Pew Research partnered on a 127-page report titled “The Next 50 Years of Digital Life.” The report, written by Kathleen Stansberry, Anderson and Rainie, includes the opinions of internet pioneers and hundreds of experts about the progress of the internet in its first 50 years and where could be headed in the next 50.

AndersonÌýalso produced a spinoff report based on a secondary question asked in the study: “What will historians’ verdict be 50 years from now about the internet’s impact today on people’s social, economic and political lives?”

Imagining the Internet in Berlin 2019

In late November 2019, a 10-person team from Imagining the Internet conducted a documentary-research video survey of more than 100 participants in the Global Internet Governance Forum in Berlin, Germany.ÌýThe team, led by Luchsinger, interviewed more than 100 Internet leaders from dozens of nation-states about their hopes and fears due to the looming opportunities and challenges of the digital age.

* It should be noted that in 2018-2019, long before the COVID-19 pandemic arrived, the dean of the School of Communications at that time, Rochelle Ford, completely cut all funding and university support for the fielding of traveling undergraduate student documentary video research teams, so the long tradition of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ students participating in and providing coverage of major global and national Internet policy events came to an end. The Center’s only work from this point on was the continuation of its long-running series of expert surveys on the potential future of digital life.

In February 2020 Anderson and RainieÌýpublished a research report on the future of democracy in the digital age: “Experts Say Digital Disruption Will Hurt Democracy.” Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ half of the experts canvassed said humans’ uses of technology will weaken democracy between 2020 and 2030 due to the speed and scope of reality distortion, the decline of journalism and the impact of surveillance capitalism. Elements of research and editing assistance on this report were provided by Emily Vogels of Pew Research.

In June 2020 Anderson, Rainie and Vogels released a follow-up research report to the “Democracy” report, this one centered on the same group of experts’ views on “The Future of Social and Civic Innovation.”ÌýA majority – 84% – predicted there will be significant social and civic innovation between 2020 and 2030 in response to the recent techlash, while 16% said there will not be significant social and civic innovation in the timeframe.

In December 2020, this same trio published “2020 Digital Life: Predictions in Retrospect,” a snapshot analysis that considered all of the predictions for 2020 that were made by respondents to Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ and Pew’s expert canvassings over the entire body of research to this point.ÌýMany forecasts were on the mark, while some did not fully anticipate many of the elements influencing the way networked technology might evolve. Experts who offered updated views, including Nicholas Carr and Jamais Cascio said the internet’s overwhelming impact on humans’ intelligence and emotional condition was vastly underappreciated.


2021-2022

In February 2021, Anderson andÌýRainie published “The New Normal in 2025,” an analysis of 915 experts’ predictions about what digital life might be like in 2025, in the wake of the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most respondents said they expect that daily life will be worse for most people over the five-year span due to economic stress, greater inequality, rising authoritarianism and rampant misinformation. They also said that people’s reliance upon digital systems at this time of emergency will lead to advances in such systems that improve healthcare, social interaction and even most workplaces in a “tele-everything” world. The report was released Feb. 18, 2021.

In April 2021 Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ and the Imagining the Internet Center honored Wikipedia and Wikimedia innovator and leader Jimmy Wales with the center’s Areté Medallion, which honors humanist online innovators for their contributions to society.ÌýAs Wales was celebrated with this honor also honored were all of the Wikipedia creators, editors and supporters globally whose sustained contributions continually make these public-knowledge resources possible.

In June 2021ÌýAnderson andÌýRainies’ report “Experts Doubt Ethical AI Will Be Broadly Adopted As the Norm Within the Next Decade” was released.ÌýOf primary concern to these experts was the fact that humanity’s rapidly advancing AI ecosystem is developed and dominated by businesses seeking to compete and maximize profits and by governments seeking to compete, surveil and exert control. A majority said it is quite unlikely that AI design will evolve to be more focused on the common good by 2030. The report briefly touched on the possibilities for an assist from quantum computing; the experts were split on QC’s potential for aiding implementation of ethical AI.

In 2021 and early 2022 Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ and Pew Research released two reports byÌýAnderson andÌýRainieÌý that reveal insights from a summer 2021 canvassing of experts. The first, “The Future of Digital Spaces and Their Role in Democracy,â€� released November 22, 2021, contains insights as to the forces at play, along with suggested solutions to increasingly worrisome trends. TheÌýsecond report, “Visions of the Internet in 2035,â€� released Feb. 7, 2022, shares the same experts’ hopes for the “better world onlineâ€� they’d like to see by 2035.

In Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ and Pew’s 15th “future of the Internet” canvassing, conducted byÌýAnderson andÌýRainie in the winter/early spring of 2022, experts were asked to imagineÌý“The Metaverse in 2040.â€� The resulting report, released June 30, 2022, illuminates more than 600 experts’ thoughts about how extended-reality (XR) tools – AR, MR and VR – and “the metaverseâ€� might evolve between 2022 and 2040 and what that might mean for society. While most expressed excitement about the potential positives for further XR and metaverse development, many said they expect that current problems due to humans’ design and uses of digital tools will be magnified if the design and operation of much-more-immersive and deeply AI-driven platforms is led by the corporate interests that built the dominant web platforms of the 2020s.


2023-2024

In February 2023, Anderson andÌýRainie published “The Future of Human Agency,” an analysis of 540 experts’Ìýexpectations for the future of human agency and free will as AI-driven applications, systems and bots take over significantly more decisions in all aspects of individuals’ daily lives in the digital age. In a summer 2022 canvassing (many months prior to the breakthroughs of ChatGPT AI later in the year), they were asked: By 2035, will smart machines, bots and systems powered by artificial intelligence be designed to allow people to easily be in control of most tech-aided decision-making that is relevant to their lives? A 56% to 44% majority said they expect the trend toward individuals losing and/or ceding continually more of their agency to tech will continue and people will not gain more influence over tech-driven decision-making.

In June 2023 in their report “As AI Spreads, Experts Predict the Best and Worst Changes in Digital Life By 2035” Anderson and Rainie published a 232-page analysis of more than 300 experts’ responses – thousands of predictions – in reply to the following question: As you look ahead to 2035, what are the best and most beneficial changes, and what are the most harmful and menacing changes that are likely to occur in digital technology and humans’ use of digital systems?ÌýWe are particularly interested in your thoughts about how developments in digital technology and humans’ uses of it might improve human-centered development of digital tools and systems; human connections, governance and institutions; human rights; human knowledge; and human health and well-being.” Most of experts expressed worries over how current digital trends might influence daily life in the near future. More than a third, 37%, said they were more concerned than excited about the digital change to come by 2035, and 42% said they were equally concerned and excited about what they expected to see as they imagine the next decade-plus.

In the Fall of 2023 preparations began for the rebranding of Imagining the Internet as . The original Imagining the Internet site is now the archives location for the first 24 years of Âé¶¹ÊÓÆµ’s research into the future of the human network in the digital age. A new website was constructed to host the research of the Imagining the Digital Future Center. Rainie was hired to direct the new center, with Anderson remaining as director of Imagining the Internet’s 24-year archive and continuing as the co-author of the center’s primary research reports – the regular canvassings of tech experts and stakeholders to capture insights into the potential future. The new center was unveiledÌýFeb. 29, 2024 at an event that also announced the results of a canvassing titled “.”